Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 1.771698 1.846848 1.925753 2.015201 2.114316 2.221420 2.346789
2025-11-16 1.678809 1.775749 1.880983 2.004830 2.148133 2.310760 2.512380
2025-11-23 1.610967 1.721473 1.844309 1.992908 2.170635 2.380381 2.653343
2025-11-30 1.569036 1.691270 1.829940 2.001830 2.213709 2.473215 2.827637
2025-12-07 1.504986 1.630955 1.775694 1.957912 2.186994 2.474676 2.881122
2025-12-14 1.465561 1.596954 1.749914 1.945632 2.196914 2.521232 2.997398
2025-12-21 1.427426 1.562369 1.721163 1.927115 2.196308 2.552138 3.093046
2025-12-28 1.411742 1.553689 1.722956 1.946249 2.244857 2.652132 3.301356
2026-01-04 1.402278 1.551778 1.732464 1.975016 2.307281 2.776160 3.565211
2026-01-11 1.378639 1.531279 1.717449 1.970386 2.322781 2.832450 3.726030
2026-01-18 1.360464 1.516778 1.709208 1.973915 2.349309 2.906793 3.930174
2026-01-25 1.326700 1.481632 1.673162 1.938122 2.316957 2.886582 3.955815
2026-02-01 1.304627 1.461282 1.656368 1.928953 2.324421 2.932612 4.122869
2026-02-08 1.284892 1.443229 1.641804 1.921955 2.334262 2.982842 4.308646
2026-02-15 1.265423 1.424903 1.626167 1.912580 2.339625 3.025618 4.488159
2026-02-22 1.254431 1.417045 1.623926 1.921669 2.373302 3.119644 4.808710
2026-03-01 1.225319 1.385021 1.588516 1.882037 2.328786 3.071288 4.772731
2026-03-08 1.208426 1.368510 1.573472 1.871119 2.328929 3.103470 4.950312
2026-03-15 1.190127 1.349747 1.554873 1.854326 2.318717 3.115575 5.078780
2026-03-22 1.185364 1.348543 1.559918 1.872033 2.364880 3.237827 5.561404
2026-03-29 1.183918 1.351586 1.570723 1.898511 2.427015 3.399238 6.260508
2026-04-05 1.171870 1.340250 1.561343 1.894318 2.437207 3.456897 6.642290
2026-04-12 1.162875 1.332767 1.557064 1.897588 2.460221 3.544140 7.203586